Pakistan's short-term inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), recorded a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 4.57% for the week ended October 16, 2025, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The SPI, which tracks the weekly price movement of 51 essential goods across 50 markets in 17 cities, showed that the combined index rose 0.49% week-on-week (WoW), driven largely by sharp increases in prices of perishable food items.
On a YoY basis, the inflation rate stood lower compared to double-digit levels seen earlier this year, suggesting that supply-side conditions have improved.
PBS report revealed that prices of tomatoes surged by a staggering 121.38% compared to the same week of last year, making it the biggest contributor to the annual inflation rate. Other major annual increases were observed in ladies' sandals (55.62%), sugar (36.94%), gas charges for Q1 (29.85%), wheat flour (16.92%), and gur (15.90%).
Meanwhile, key staples like vegetable ghee (up to 12.39%), beef (12.95%), firewood (11.71%), diesel (9.75%), and eggs (9.02%) also saw notable hikes over the year.
Conversely, some essential commodities registered significant price drops compared to the previous year. Onion prices fell by 33.55%, while chicken became 29.81% cheaper. Similarly, pulse gram (-28.86%), garlic (-28.48%), electricity charges for Q1 (-26.26%), tea (-17.93%), and pulse mash (-17.55%) also posted declines, easing pressure on consumer budgets.
On a weekly basis, the increase of 0.49% in the SPI was mainly attributed to sharp price jumps in tomatoes (33.20%), onions (8.70%), eggs (2.18%), and wheat flour (1.42%). Meanwhile, prices of chicken (-6.38%), bananas (-4.70%), and petrol (-2.09%) provided some relief.
Out of the 51 tracked items, 24 (47.06%) recorded price increases, eight (15.69%) registered declines, and 19 (37.25%) remained unchanged during the week under review.
The latest SPI data highlights a clear disparity in inflationary impact across consumption quintiles, reflecting the uneven burden of rising prices on different income groups.
For the week ended October 16, 2025, the lowest income group (Q1) experienced the sharpest WoW increase of 1.07%, followed by Q2 at 0.92%, Q3 at 0.71%, and Q4 at 0.59%, while the highest income group (Q5) recorded the smallest rise of 0.29%.
This pattern underscores that lower-income households, which allocate a greater share of their expenditures to food and energy, are disproportionately affected by fluctuations in essential commodities' prices.
