KARACHI:

Every Ramazan, fruit prices skyrocket across Pakistan. Consumers cry foul, vent anger on social media and circulate boycott calls, while experts offer familiar explanations. Yet the government has still not devised a solution to the predictable spike in demand and constrained supply, a persistent, almost primitive market failure in a quarter-past-21st-century world equipped with the most advanced technology in human history.

Each year, prices of key iftar items, including bananas, apples, guavas and tomatoes, rise sharply in the weeks leading up to the holy month. Officials typically attribute the trend to higher consumption. Sector stakeholders, however, argue that without data-driven planning, farmers and markets remain unable to adjust supply efficiently, allowing traders to dominate pricing.

“There is no assessment in Pakistan of how demand for major fruits and vegetables changes during Ramazan or across months,” said Mahmood Nawaz Shah, president of the Sindh Abadgar Board. “Have we analysed 10 or 15 years of data to identify which crops face shortages in which season? The answer is no.”

Agriculture economists note that Ramazan consumption patterns are highly predictable compared with most other food demand cycles. Fruit intake rises as households include it in iftar meals, while hotel and wedding catering activity declines. Even with this mixed demand profile, experts say authorities could still map net consumption trends and guide production accordingly.

Instead, crop decisions are largely left to fragmented farmer expectations and trader signals. Growers often attempt to time harvests for Ramazan based on price assumptions rather than reliable market intelligence. For instance, banana growers typically try to accelerate harvests by a few weeks to coincide with Ramazan demand. Some melon farmers plant earlier in winter so the fruit reaches markets during the fasting month. But because Ramazan shifts about 10 days earlier each year on the lunar calendar, such planning remains inherently unstable.

The absence of demand forecasting also prevents stakeholders from identifying which commodities actually face shortages versus those with adequate supply. Vegetables such as potatoes and cabbage often remain abundant during Ramazan, yet others experience sharp price spikes due to perceived scarcity.

Muhammad Ali Iqbal, President of Concave Agri Services, said much of Pakistan’s fruit supply during Ramazan is either off-season or transitioning between regions, making advance supply planning even more critical. “All major fruits are either ending or starting their seasons around this time,” he said. “Without demand projections, farmers and traders rely on speculation.”

Stakeholders argue that the government could use historical price and production data to identify around 15 high-consumption Ramazan commodities and forecast expected demand gaps several months in advance. Farmers could then be encouraged, through extension services or incentives, to adjust planting schedules or acreage.

Such planning is common in more formalised agricultural economies, where seasonal consumption events, from holidays to export windows, are integrated into crop calendars and supply chains. Pakistan, by contrast, lacks even basic datasets linking consumption cycles to production patterns. “There is no institutional capacity monitoring which fruits and vegetables see recurring Ramazan spikes,” Shah said. “Without that, you cannot guide farmers on what to grow or when.”

Analysts add that the planning gap interacts with other structural weaknesses, particularly limited cold storage and unreliable rural electricity. Because farmers cannot store produce cheaply, they are unable to smooth supply across weeks, increasing dependence on traders who control storage and release timing.

The result is a recurring cycle: farmers plant based on guesswork, traders anticipate Ramazan demand and hold stock, and consumers face price surges framed as inevitable seasonal effects.

Experts emphasise that improved forecasting would not necessarily suppress farmer incomes. Instead, it could stabilise both prices and production by aligning supply more closely with predictable consumption peaks.

“If the goal is only to cap prices, farmers lose incentive,” Shah said. “But if you encourage supply ahead of demand, both farmers and consumers benefit.” Agriculture specialists suggest a phased approach: short-term analysis of historical Ramazan price behaviour; medium-term crop advisories and storage support; and long-term investment in controlled-environment farming to offset seasonal gaps as Ramazan continues to shift through the calendar.