In pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump has leveraged tariffs in recent conflicts
Donald Trump has been increasingly putting pressure on the government of Venezuela. Photograph: PHOTO: REUTERS
Thailand has resisted US tariff pressure aimed at enforcing peace with Cambodia, as border clashes reignited this week, ending the Trump-backed ceasefire from July. At that time, a call from then-US President Donald Trump and the threat of “crushing tariffs” had helped halt five days of intense fighting.
“Bangkok’s resistance is a test for Trump’s tariff play, but the tariff has always been a blunt instrument,” said Chong Ja Ian, political science professor at the National University of Singapore. “Whether it can get a lasting ceasefire over longstanding and deep-seated animosities has been and is doubtful.”
Trump, in his quest for a Nobel Peace Prize, has attempted to mediate in several conflicts in recent months using tariffs as leverage, with mixed results, while also alienating some countries. Earlier this year, his push to halt fighting between India and Pakistan—reportedly using sky-high tariffs—strained relations between New Delhi and Washington. India, however, denies tariffs played any role in ending hostilities.
Read: Cambodia-Thailand clashes spread
At a rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Trump said he expects to make a phone call on Wednesday to stop the fighting between Thailand and Cambodia, without elaborating.
Thailand’s Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow stressed that resolving the border conflict should remain separate from ongoing trade negotiations. In October, the United States and Thailand announced a reciprocal trade framework maintaining a 19% tariff on Thai products, while identifying areas for potential tariff cuts. “We feel that it’s unjust already that we should be subject to a unilateral tariff of 19%, and perhaps they want to impose even more tariffs if they’re not happy,” Sihasak said in an interview on Tuesday.
Thailand and Cambodia have disputed parts of their 817 km (508 miles) land border for over a century. Efforts to address overlapping claims have made little progress, leading to periodic military flare-ups.
The current hostilities come as Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul—who took power in September after his predecessor was ousted over the border issue—prepares to dissolve parliament next month and trigger snap elections in March. Anutin has already faced criticism over his government’s slow response to deadly floods in the south last month, threatening to derail his Bhumjaithai party’s ambitions.
“It puts Bhumjaithai in this position of angling to prove its leadership mettle during its short stint in leadership, and that’s quite clearly to try to win votes in the election that’s coming,” said Laura Schwartz, senior analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
Read More: Trump expects Thailand–Cambodia ceasefire at ASEAN summit: Malaysia
While higher tariffs remain a risk, Anutin and his party may seek to harness nationalist sentiment by taking a tougher stance on trade and separating it from the border dispute. Anutin faced sharp criticism from some of the more nationalistic elements when he signed the ceasefire agreement brokered by Trump and Malaysia, said Voranai Vanijaka, a lecturer at Bangkok’s Thammasat University. “So he’s going to keep Trump away for now,” he added.
A nationwide poll in August showed Thais overwhelmingly trust the military—which has been most strident in its response to Cambodia—over the political leadership.
“Thailand may face an immediate tariff blowback, but it is betting on its military superiority and the limited nature of the conflict,” said Chong. “It probably believes that it can prevail and the Trump administration will live with that result.”
